6 Things Affecting Your Portfolio This Week

With massive uncertainty everywhere from the economy, to the coronavirus, to the protests and riots, and the upcoming election…

Things are nuts.

Over the last few weeks, I’ve shown you things I’m watching every week to see if the economy is recovering or stagnating so you can make better investment decisions.

Today I want to show you 6 Things Affecting The Market and your portfolio going forward.

  1. Third Quarter Earnings Kick Off

The next earnings season is here as third quarter earnings begin reporting this week.

Will tech continue to thrive?

Will restaurants, car companies, airlines, and others continue to get hammered?

Will roles reverse?

We begin finding out this week as big names – including some I’ve written about in the past few months – begin reporting their latest earnings this week.

I’ll keep you updated as necessary on anything important with the economy or any company I’ve written about in the coming weeks as needed.

Seeing quarterly and yearly earnings helps me understand what’s going on in the market via individual stocks…

Another major thing to keep an eye on – especially during crazy times like now – are when the US government releases updated financial and employment data.

Why do I watch this?

For the same reasons I watch quarterly and yearly stock earnings… To help spot potential trends you can and should take advantage of.  And, to help you avoid serious issues.

Here are the important government data releases I’m watching this week.

2. Housing Starts and Building Permits – Releases On October 20th 

This is important because it shows if people are still buying houses.  If they are that’s a good sign for the economy.  If they’ve slowed down, it’s a bad sign for the economy.

Why?

Because if this slows significantly it means people either don’t have the money to buy a house due to unemployment issues.  Or that banks aren’t lending as much to people to buy houses.

Neither is good for the economy.

In July this showed 1.5 million homes we’re under construction which was a strong sign of the continued strength of the housing market.

And then in August this dropped slightly to 1.4 million for both numbers.

If housing permits and starts rise again that’s a promising sign of economic recovery.

3. United States Federal Reserve Beige Book – Releases October 21st 

This report is important because it aggregates and shows “anecdotal information on the current economic conditions.”

Many people watch this report to get a “true” look at the economic conditions… Without – supposedly – any politics involved in the process.

Here’s what to look for in this when it comes to the US economy…

  • Is it recovering?
  • Is the recovery stalling?
  • Does the economy need more stimulus?

While this book doesn’t give direct answers to these questions… It shows signs of which way we’re headed based on real world data.

4. Initial Jobless Claims – Releases October 22nd 

Keep watching the trend…

From March-June this number declined on a weekly basis.

The absolute numbers were horrific. But the decline was a great sign we’re headed in the right direction in terms of employment.

Then when coronavirus cases began exploding in July, job losses started rising again.

Then they began falling again until two weeks ago.

These rose to 840,000 new job losses compared to the 800,000 jobs lost the week before.

And last week these rose to the highest level since August 22nd with 898,000 job losses in the week.

It’s a good sign this is falling from the millions of jobs lost per week earlier in this pandemic.

But the weekly job losses are still far too high for a “solid” economic recovery.  Especially now that they’re rising again over the last two weeks.

Throw on top of this that these are still historically high now seven months into the pandemic and this is a bad combination for the economy and the recovery.

5. Continuing Jobless Claims – Releases October 22nd 

For the same reasons as job losses above, this is also ultra-important.

But a further note on this… It’s the number of people still receiving federal and state unemployment benefits each week instead of weekly job losses.

Two weeks ago, continuing jobless claims fell by 1 million to 10.97 million.  And then they fell again last week to just above 10 million.

Both are way down from the 26 million earlier this year.

The trend here so far is good.

But we still need to watch this because there are still far too many unemployed people for a “healthy” economy.

6. Existing Home Sales – Releases October 22nd

It’s important like housing starts and permits above for the same reasons…

The main difference being is that those are new construction homes.  And these are already built homes.

In August this rose to 6 million homes sold.

How many homes were sold in September and is this higher or lower than the last few months?

This will go a long way to helping us figure out the trend of the economy.

As of this writing the economy is recovering from the worst of things back in March and April… But now the recovery appears to be slowing as we head into Fall.  Especially when you look at the still massive – and now rising again – job losses every week. 

These are the major things I’m watching this week.  I’ll keep you updated on all this going forward.

Here are the articles from the last week in case you missed any…

Click the links below to see the stocks we recommend to Depression Proof Your Portfolio and earn safe investment returns.

Disclosure – Jason Rivera is a 13+ year veteran value investor who now spends much of his time helping other investors earn higher than average investment returns safely. He does not have any holdings in any securities mentioned above and the article expresses his own opinions. He has no business relationship with any company mentioned above.

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